Evaluating wildfire simulators using historical fire data
نویسندگان
چکیده
High-performance wildfire simulators allow the future location of a wildfire to be rapidly predicted. The accuracy of such simulators needs to be evaluated; this can be achieved by comparing simulated and observed spread for documented historical fires. A key issue relates to the accuracy of data obtained from historical fires, such as the time-varying fire location, fire-ground weather and accuracy of fuel type, load and structure data. A methodology used to evaluate the accuracy of wildfire simulators using historical fire data is presented and applied to the AUSTRALIS wildfire simulator using the four distinct phases of a large-scale wildfire occurring in Western Australian sand-plain heathlands and a fire reconstruction report on this fire produced by a wildfire expert. Challenges encountered in performing this validation exercise are highlighted.
منابع مشابه
Techniques for evaluating wildfire simulators via the simulation of historical fires using the Australis simulator
A methodology for validating fire spread simulation systems using historical fire data is presented. The key features of this methodology are (a) quantitative comparison between simulator-generated fire perimeters and fire perimeters from an independently produced fire reconstruction at multiple time points during the fire, and (b) extensive sensitivity analyses on simulation variables includin...
متن کاملAnalyzing seasonal patterns of wildfire exposure factors in Sardinia, Italy
In this paper, we applied landscape scale wildfire simulation modeling to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the island of Sardinia (Italy). We also performed wildfire exposure analysis for selected highly valued resources on the island to identify areas characterized by high risk. We observed substantial variation in burn probability, fire size, and fla...
متن کاملClimatic influences on fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests of the Zuni Mountains, NM, USA
We characterized fire history and examined climate–fire relationships in dry ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in the Zuni Mountains of northwestern New Mexico. Our findings indicate that the historical wildfire regime for the study area was typified by high-frequency, low-severity surface fires. Climate–wildfire relationships were assessed using both Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) and ...
متن کاملEvaluating Crown Fire Rate of Spread Predictions from Physics-Based Models
Modeling the behavior of crown fires is challenging due to the complex set of coupled processes that drive the characteristics of a spreading wildfire and the large range of spatial and temporal scales over which these processes occur. Detailed physics-based modeling approaches such as FIRETEC and the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) simulate fire behavior using computati...
متن کاملVariability of wildland fire emissions across the contiguous United States
This study analyzes spatial and temporal variability of emissions from wildland fires across the contiguous US. The emissions are estimates based on a recently constructed dataset of historical fire records collected by multiple US governlnental agencies. Both wildfire and prescribed fires have the highest emissions over the Pacific coastal states. Prescribed fire emissions are also found to be...
متن کامل